What is Happening with CPI and Inflation?

Believe me, everyone on Wall Street wants inflation to go away, or at least shrink back to below 2%, a level we enjoyed not so long ago.

But Tuesday's Consumer Price Index report showed it might be some time before we see 2% again. Consumer prices ticked slightly lower in August, but not as much as what Wall Street wanted. Economists, pointing out that gasoline prices dropped in the past month, made bold predictions for August inflation. Too bold, as it turned out.

Stocks got clobbered, and bonds didn’t fare much better. The inflation report showed that higher food, shelter, and medical services costs were to blame. Higher costs in those areas indicate inflation could be more persistent and entrenched than we thought.¹

So now the question is, “What will the Fed do at its upcoming meeting?” In the chart below, the green highlights show the most likely outcomes for the next several Fed meetings, according to the CME Group. Keep in mind that in early September, the CME Group’s indicator said smaller increases were possible. But no more.

All too often this year, I haven’t had great news to pass along about the markets. But I want to assure you that I’m committed to staying on top of the news in good times, bad times, and in-between times.

If Tuesday's drop raised some new concerns, please give me a call. Thanks for your trust.

^{1. BLS.gov, September 13, 2022}

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.